2016 US President Candidates

Two candidates, one dilemma: Hillary or Trump?

On November 8th, Americans will vote for the 45th President of the United States that will succeed Barack Obama. With the Primaries almost finished, two candidates have emerged as frontrunners by securing the majority of delegates¹ in their party primaries; Hillary Clinton from the Democrats that call on her supporters to vote “Hillary for America”; Donald Trump from the Republican party that appears as a unifier and promises to “make America great again”.

Meeting the Republican Candidate: Donald Trump

In June 2015, Donald Trump announced his candidacy for president of the United States but very few believed that he could win the Republican nomination. A controversial Republican candidate with no previous political experience, he became widely known for his negative comments against women, immigrants and Muslims.

In general, Trump represents a very conservative school of thought that addresses an older religious and puritan voter base. Many Republicans fear that Trump’s extreme views damage the image of the party among young voters, women and the minorities. Some of his disbelievers stood critically to Trump’s candidacy such as the Oregon representative Greg Walden or the South Carolina’s Republican Lindsey Graham.

Yet, his lead on the primaries had most of his critics and the G.O.P.² senators pledging their support to his nomination, while others held a more reserved position (McCarthy, 2016). For now, it is obvious that his name serves as “a rallying cry … to defeat the likely Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton” (McCarthy, 2016). In other words, Trump can be identified as the unifier of his party that will prevent anarchy inside the G.O.P. by opening the way to win back the White House from Democrats.

Trump’s ideology is far from traditional Republicanism. With a strong anti-immigration policy, Trump proposes radical measures to reduce the immigrant influx with the deportation of illegal workers from the country and the construction of a border wall between US and Mexico. Conversely, Republicans encourage migration owing to their close relationship with the business community. Regarding the free trade agreement, the G.O.P. believes that North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA³) and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP⁴) increase the competitiveness in the global market; for Trump, these agreements benefit mainly China with its low tariff policy, by causing great harm to the US exports and its manufacturing sector.

As a matter of fact, his radical ideas for the foreign and social policy reveal his ideological deviation from the Republican doctrine. For some, Trump is a ‘liberal republican’ rather than a conservative candidate. First of all, the distanced foreign policy that Trumps promotes is contradictory to the traditional right-wing ideology for a strong US military presence abroad; his suggestions include distancing from NATO and the EU/Pacific allies with public cuts in defence and military spending, In addition, Trump promises a better social care system through the reallocation of the foreign aid funding in the social sector. On the contrary, the G.O.P. favours the privatisation of the social services including health care sector because of the major federal deficit they cause.

Meeting the Democrat Candidate: Hillary Clinton

Fighter of the human and women’s rights with a successful political career as a first lady, senator, secretary of the State for four years, Hillary Clinton is running for the second time on the Presidential Election with the Democrat party. The first time was in 2008 when she lost the nomination to Barack Obama.

With her clear overtaking from her Democrat contestant, Bernie Sanders, Clinton will stand up to Trump in the President Elections. If elected, she will be the first female president in US history. In the past, only two women were candidates for the role of the Vice-President; Geraldine Ferraro was the first Vice-President candidate in 1984 with the Democrat Walter Mondale; in 2008, the Alaska Governor Sarah Palin was picked as the running mate of the Republican candidate John McCain. What’s more, her win will be a significant boost for the Democrat party; only two Democrats have directly succeeded another Democrat president in the US history.

Clinton’s dynamic is built on the support of independent women, Hispanics and African Americans; groups that have been targeted by Trump. According to Stan Greenberg, a veteran pollster, Hillary might gain the votes of the 20% of moderate Republicans that strongly dislike Trump (Von Drehle et al, 2016).

One of her weak points is the lack of popularity among young voters, a powerful electoral base of the left-wing; Sanders, her Democratic counterpart, was more popular to this group. Moreover, the recent private email account scandal as her time being secretary of state gives more dynamic to Trump’s candidacy, which may also infer a breach of the federal law.

Trump or Clinton: A comparative analysis

Opinion poll ratings show that Clinton takes slight precedence with Huffington Post giving her 43.4% compared to Trump with 41.2% for May 19th. A BBC’s ten-month poll rating from July 2015 to May 2016 shows Clinton higher in the rankings compared to Trump. However, poll estimates could change easily within six months before November. An ongoing polling survey conducted by the site RealClear Politics (RCP), reveals that on May 24th, the Republican candidate was ahead of Hillary Clinton by 0.2 percentage points (Chalabi, 2016).

Indeed, Hillary’s profile conveys solidarity and stability; she is regarded as more capable of handling sensitive policy issues such as terrorism, immigration, health care, foreign policy, education and climate change. On the other hand, Trump is more trusted on the economy. According to the CNN/ ORC poll, almost 9 out of 10 voters mentioned the economy as extremely or very important factor for their decision to vote for president (LoBianco and Agiesta, 2016).

It should come as no surprise if Trump wins the elections, especially after he succeeded to drop out other stronger Republican candidates. Following John E. Kennedy’s strategy, his continuous presence all over the media has achieved substantial power appeal to the G.O.P. grassroots voters. The G.O.P. front-runner has been projected the image of a new politician, who has not been corrupted by the existing political system and who fights for the rights of the mid-class hit by the global economic recession. Conversely, Clinton is more disliked and considered as a less credible candidate due to her long political career as a senator and secretary of the state.

Overall, the aggressive strategy that Trump pursues his presidential campaign reveals his determination to win the elections. In his hope to win New York, Trump is now targeting other Democratic states, such as Michigan or Pennsylvania. In fact, dissatisfied Democrat voters may cast their vote to a Republican candidate, which can trigger a historic political realignment in the traditional party coalition (Schofield et al., 2003). Needless to say that Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential Election has previously defeated Clinton, so that makes it easier for Trump to win Democrat voters who dislike Clinton.

Regarding fiscal policy, their taxation plans follow opposite directions. For Clinton, a sound fiscal policy is intertwined with higher taxation and future reforms in schooling, infrastructure, energy and health care. Against tax increase, Trump proposes cuts in public spending that will strengthen the US public finances, which could, on the other hand, cause serious budget deficits.

In a global scale, the election of the next President will have serious effects in the international financial market. Both candidates have launched their political campaigns and announced their plans on the US economy with their agendas sharing some similarities; protection of the low incomes and anti-free trade policies. Following a more moderate policy, Clinton leans towards stronger state control over trade and commerce that would protect the workers and human rights. Instead, Trump turns against the free trade agreements by lashing out at China and Mexico, the two main trading partners of the US.

Beyond the economic and trade relations, US Presidential election is of high importance for the global community, “as the US plays the role of the security guard, the stabilizer, the facilitator and the partner“(Hubel et al, 2001). According to the American Constitution, the president constitutes the role of the leader and in cooperation with the Congress forms the US foreign policy.

So, the US needs a trustworthy President that will bring stability in its political system and will be able to make decisions that will have the approval of the Congress. Some distinctive features that define a leader are: visions and goal orientation; morality and principles; responsibility and search for the common good; persuasion and decision-making (Carpenter M. D. II, 2007). Therefore, Clinton offers more stability and could be proved more responsible on the way she could handle sensitive issues, while Trump is more inclined to the active features that define a leader: persuasion and good communication skills.

Obviously, both candidates will follow a more distant foreign policy than their previous counterparts. While Clinton follows a more moderate policy, the introversion that Trump suggests could lead to the isolation of the US; a chance that China could use to dominate in world politics.

It is yet to see which one of the two candidates will win the majority of the electoral votes in the General Elections of November the 8th. The results will reveal which candidate is more trusted by the American people.

No matter who will be elected for President of the United States, Clinton or Trump, one thing is for sure; these elections will be historic. There are two diverse candidates: Hillary Clinton, if elected, will be the first female president, whereas Donald Trump, a Republican businessman, will be the first president with no previous political experience. Both are deeply disliked by the American voters; the intention for vote will be more about opposing a candidate than supporting one (LoBianco and Agiesta, 2016). Finally, the next president will be on the group of the oldest presidents; Donald Trump will be soon 70 years old and by winning the White House will become the oldest president in US history, while Hillary Clinton will turn 69 and will be the second-oldest president on the inauguration.

Photo: La Real Noticia, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Source: (flickr.com) | (Public Domain Mark 1.0)

Footnotes

[1] Delegates:

Party members that vote for the candidate president during the party conventions.

[2] G.O.P.:

The Grand Old Party (G.O.P.) refers to the Republican Party, a term that is used since 1874 (Grace, 2002).

[3] North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA):

Trade agreement between Canada, US and Mexico that came into effect in 1994. Its purpose is to set the rules for international trade and investment between the three countries; to protect the foreign investment; to encourage the access of goods between the markets of the North American Countries; to facilitate the professional trips throughout the American continent. As part of NAFTA, other agreements came into action: the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation (NAAEC) and the North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation (NAALC).

[4] Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP):

A pending regional agreement for global trade between the US and 11 other countries; Australia, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Vietnam, Chile, Brunei, Singapore, New Zealand. Its purpose is to bond the economic cooperation and investment between them and their people by making TTP the platform for Asia-Pacific regional trade integration. According to the office of the United States Trade Representative, this agreement is of high importance for the US, as 44% of total US goods exports are destined in the Asia Pacific and could eliminate more than 18,000 taxes plus other trade barriers on American products across the TPP countries.

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