Unravelling the effects of the Kurdish referendum in the Middle East

In the era of overshadowed states, stronger regional organisations and non-state actors, the Kurdish Independence referendum in Northern Iraq on September 25 has shaken the Middle East this year. Mixed reactions and a climate of uncertainty left regional and global players speculating as to what the future might be in the region.

Beyond any personal views on the matter, the current article does not intend to legitimise or condemn the independence movement of the Kurds in Northern Iraq. In contrast, the aim is to uncover the implications and risks involved for the regional stability and beyond, if a Kurdish state in Northern Iraq could trigger a pan-Kurdish revolution in the Middle East.

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Photo: Thierry Ehrmann, État Islamique- Daesh P1050159 (2012). Source: (flickr.com) | (CC BY 2.0)

History and rebirth of the Caliphate

The history of ISIS goes back to 2004, when a Jordanian jihadist, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, joined Osama Bin Laden’s organisation and formed al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). Two years later, AQI was renamed into Islamic State in Iraq (ISI) and in 2010 Baghdadi became its leader. Thereafter, the group joined the rebels against President Bashar-al Assad in Syria. In 2013, Iraqi and Syrian forces were merged under the control of Baghdadi by creating the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. The opportunist approach of ISIS in the local conflicts helped the organisation to consolidate its hold over the cities of the area and to change its name into Islamic State.

With the occupied areas falling under the Islamic law (Sharia), it is estimated by the UN that approximately 10 million people live under ISIS control. More than 4.8 million Syrians have escaped in neighbouring countries -Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan – and Europe, while over 3 million Iraqis have been forced to leave their homes and been displaced within the country.

In response to ISIS, the US-led coalition¹ has launched airstrikes on IS positions in Iraq and Syria in August and September 2014, respectively. So far, it is estimated that ISIS has lost approximately 40% of its occupied territory in Iraq and 10% to 20% in Syria.

The History of the Caliphate and its rebirth

In order to better understand the Islamic group, it is worth to take a further look at the history of the Caliphate and how ISIS envisions it.

For more than 1,000 years, the Muslim society (Umma) was living united under one Caliphate, which was subject to the law of God (Sharia), the Qur’an and its holy traditions, known as hadiths. The fall of the Caliphate was followed shortly after the establishment of Kemal Ataturk’s presidency in Turkey. The latter has been accused of abolishing the Ottoman Caliphate in 1924 and for destroying the Islamic state.

After the failed attempts of Islamic scholars to modernise the Islamic states during the 20th century, ISIS is now claiming the revival of the true Islamic Caliphate. The new Caliphate will be governed by its caliph and in accordance with the Islamic Law (Sharia). The role of the caliph will take over the leader of the group – Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim al-Badri al-Samarrai or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, as he is better known. Many jihadist members of other groups have also been attracted by the plans of a new Islamic State and joined ISIS – including members of al-Qaeda.

Finally, the legitimation of IS actions is drawn from the sacred book of Qur’an. The answer lies in the concept of jihad, which means battle or struggle; the internal struggle to follow the will of God; the external battle to spread the Truth of Islam in the rest of the world. For the radical organisations of Islam, this battle has been translated as a holy war against the infidels. The attacks against the western civilisation are not only a protest against its hegemony but also against its principles. Thus, ISIS members envision themselves as warriors of God that will spread the words of Qur’an to the rest of the world.

The use of symbols inspired by the Islamic tradition: The monochrome flag

After this brief analysis for the Caliphate, it is interesting to see what other symbols ISIS uses to open up communication channels with the Islamists. The black and white flag (or the black flag) has been used as a major symbol of ISIS. Other jihad-oriented groups have also used this flag.

A closer look to the black flag reveals two important facts; the reference in the Seal of Mohammed and the Shahada; the deliberate use of the black and white font. Initially, the Arabic message in the black font declares, “There is no God but God”, while the second line of the white circle incorporates the Seal of Mohammed which states that “God’s Messenger [is] Mohammed”. These two statements consist also the Shahada, the basis for the declaration of the Islamic faith. Regarding the choice of the black and white font, according to experts, it refers to the Prophet Mohammed’s war banner that calls the world of Islam to fight against Christians.

Differences and rivalry between the religious sects of Islam

Another parameter that will help the reader to get a clearer view of why jihadist groups are thriving in the Middle East and North/ Sub-Saharan Africa is by understanding the difference between the two main religious sects of Islam.

Between Shiites and Sunnis, the schism resulted from the disagreement over who should have succeeded Prophet Mohammed after his death. According to Shia, only kinsmen of the Prophet could become caliphs, while for Sunnis caliphs could also come from the community of believers.

For Sunnis, who represent the orthodox dogma of the Muslims, they follow the tradition of Mohammed (Sunnah) and the Islamic law (Sharia). In fact, they represent 90% of the Muslim world, the majority of whom live in Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, Shiites worship Ali² and his relatives as the main religious figures after Mohammed. They make up 10% of the Muslims and mainly live in Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Azerbaijan and Yemen.

The rivalry between the two sects of Islam has deeply affected the current crises in the Middle East. The conflict in Syria is a great example of this endless war. Shiites from Hezbollah and Iran have been providing support to the Shia-led government against the Sunnis. In return, Sunni jihadist groups including the Islamic State (IS) have been trying to refute Shi’a forces in Syria and neighbouring Iraq. Another great example was the political standoff between the Shia-led government and the minority of Sunni Arabs in Iraq in December 2013. ISIS reinforces its presence in the area by helping the former Saddam Hussein loyalists.

ISIS-occupied zones in Syria and Iraq

How did ISIS succeed to spread its territory in Syria and Iraq? The answer lies in its self-sufficiency in troops, weapons and energy monopoly. With more than 28,000 foreign fighters have joined its army, the group has also at its disposal small and heavy weapons including captured tanks from the Syrian and the Iraqi armies.

Financially, IS is considered as one of the wealthiest militant groups. Its sources rely on funding from private donors and Islamic charities; on crude oil trade to local exporters; in special taxes to religious minorities.

All in all, the Islamic State is currently occupying the key cities in Iraq and Syria, but still has lost the control in some of its occupied cities; Tikrit, Sinjar and Ramadi in Iraq; Hassaka and much of Kobane in Syria. In December 2015, the group has captured some areas in the Nangarhar province and Jalalabad of Afghanistan, while also established its presence in Yemen.

Attacks outside ISIS territory

Above, it was examined the strength of IS in its territory and were also presented the factors that consolidated its presence in Syria and Iraq. What about IS’s global reach?

Middle East consists of the core of the ISIS activity. In Turkey, multiple attacks were carried out in Ankara and Istanbul, while in Lebanon ISIS claimed the responsibility of the Beirut twin blasts, as retaliation to Hezbollah. Egypt has also seen a strong presence of ISIS on the Sinai Peninsula. In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the Shiite population was the target of many attacks. Following, Jordan has suffered from ISIS threats. In Afghanistan, the attacks against the Pakistani Consulate and the TV Station in Islamabad were the result of the competition between ISIS and Taliban. Bangladesh has been the witness of numerous attacks from ISIS by targeting the Hindu community, foreigners and Muslim sects.

In North Africa, there is an imminent fear that the region will fall in ISIS domination and will be the next generator of a refugee crisis after the recent attack of Tunisian’s town Ben Guerdane that left at least 58 people dead. Additionally, Libya is currently ungoverned and was spotted as an important training ground for ISIS, while Algeria and Morocco have taken counter-terrorism measures to prevent the spread of ISIS militants in their countries.

Although North Africa has been the priority for ISIS, the group gains ground also to the south. Currently, there are three jihadist hotspots: northern Nigeria and Chad; the Horn of Africa; Mali and the Sahel region. For many years, these areas were under the al-Qaeda’s influence and so ISIS had some success in making inroads among jihadist groups in sub-Saharan Africa.

In Europe, the recent execution of 130 people in Paris and the two bomb attacks in the metro station/ airport in Brussels were the punishment for the airstrikes of the two countries against ISIS in Syria. In Copenhagen, a man that claimed allegiance to ISIS killed two people in two separate attacks in February 2015. Many European countries were also reported for ISIS activity in their territory. Bosnia was used as a base for training and for launching attacks in Europe. Spanish and Portuguese nationals were also spotted for having links with the jihadist group.

By spreading IS presence throughout South-East Asia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines have feared the expansion of Islamic extremism in their territory. In Indonesia, the attack of January 2016 in Jakarta killed more than 7 people and further attacks might follow due to the big number of Muslims in the country.

Australia was also witnessing of two attacks by IS sympathisers in the past, while in the US and Canada the supporters or recruits of the jihadist group were responsible for a series of attacks. In Russia, it is located a militant jihadist group, Caucasus Emirate, which is also linked with the al-Baghdadi group. Finally, ISIS has also declared the war against China and India for violating Muslim minority rights.

Summing up

 The current article aimed to cover some important aspects of who is the Islamic State and how did it emerge in the global scene. Some important conclusions are that ISIS has already developed a responsive economic system that includes multiple sources of income; a strong military force trained by experienced military officers; a vision for establishing the Islamic State, the Caliphate, which currently includes areas in Iraq and Syria; a well-developed communication strategy to attract new supporters all over the world.

Out of the most important consequences is that the current conflict has generated a refugee crisis. A massive wave of refugees – mainly from Syria and other regions of the Middle East and North Africa – has been displaced within their countries or found shelter in the neighbouring countries and in Europe. With a global crisis underway, vulnerable groups have been inevitably stigmatised by this conflict; some European countries have refused access to refugees due to fears of further attacks in their territory. The article with the title Syria: A Refugee Crisis discusses in detail the consequences of this conflict.


Footnotes

[1] US-led coalition:

The airstrikes of the Western coalition announced against the Islamic State. Countries that took part in the coalition include USA, UK, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Jordan, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. Russia is not part of the US-led coalition but has carried airstrikes as against ISIS in Syria.

[2] Ali:

He is the Prophet Mohammed’s son-in-law and cousin. Shiites recognise Ali as the only caliph and successor to the Prophet.


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Tags: Islamic State (IS), Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant US-led coalition, Caliphate, Syria, black flag, Shiites, Sunnis, refugee crisis