Security Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa

A socio-economic approach

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is geographically the African sub-continent that lies below the Sahara desert. In the literature, the term is frequently used as a way to distinguish the North from the rest of the continent for a cultural and geostrategic reason; SSA has been regarded as a homogenous zone, usually burdened by economic and political instabilities. Swept aside from the global scene, it is for a fact that little attention has been paid on the regional challenges.

On that account, the current article attempts, in the first place, to shed light on the socioeconomic disparities of the region; in the second place, to show off the security challenges that SSA encounters. Read more

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Addressing Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Radicalisation and the role of the Islamist militant groups

To date, terrorism has been on the rise around the globe. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the emergence of extremism has caused political instabilities in the region and in some cases, civil wars. Many voices expressed the fear that the radical Islam of the Middle East could have a spillover effect in other parts of the world. In fact, the strong presence of Muslim communities in Sub-Saharan Africa and its proximity to the MENA region puts the sub-continent in immediate danger. The current analysis is focused on the violent trends in Africa and examines the correlation of the internal conflicts in SSA with the extremist. Read more

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How the US President is elected

In due course, a new president will emerge from the US General Election 2016. For many readers and IR -international relations- scholars interested in the American elections, there is a vague idea of how a president is elected since the voting system is quite complicated and the truth is that many factors affect the final result.

The current article aims to cover this gap. The two following sections will more closely consider the US political and electoral system. A thorough and comparative analysis over the two finalists, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, follows in the article 2016 US President Candidates Read more

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2016 US President Candidates

Two candidates, one dilemma: Hillary or Trump?

On November 8th, Americans will vote for the 45th President of the United States that will succeed Barack Obama. With the Primaries almost finished, two candidates have emerged as frontrunners by securing the majority of delegates¹ in their party primaries; Hillary Clinton from the Democrats that call on her supporters to vote “Hillary for America”; Donald Trump from the Republican party that appears as a unifier and promises to “make America great again”. Read more

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The rise of the Islamic State (ISIS)

Photo: Thierry Ehrmann, État Islamique- Daesh P1050159 (2012). Source: (flickr.com) | (CC BY 2.0)

History and rebirth of the Caliphate

The history of ISIS goes back to 2004, when a Jordanian jihadist, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, joined Osama Bin Laden’s organisation and formed al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). Two years later, AQI was renamed into Islamic State in Iraq (ISI) and in 2010 Baghdadi became its leader. Thereafter, the group joined the rebels against President Bashar-al Assad in Syria. In 2013, Iraqi and Syrian forces were merged under the control of Baghdadi by creating the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. The opportunist approach of ISIS in the local conflicts helped the organisation to consolidate its hold over the cities of the area and to change its name into Islamic State.

With the occupied areas falling under the Islamic law (Sharia), it is estimated by the UN that approximately 10 million people live under ISIS control. More than 4.8 million Syrians have escaped in neighbouring countries -Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan – and Europe, while over 3 million Iraqis have been forced to leave their homes and been displaced within the country.

In response to ISIS, the US-led coalition¹ has launched airstrikes on IS positions in Iraq and Syria in August and September 2014, respectively. So far, it is estimated that ISIS has lost approximately 40% of its occupied territory in Iraq and 10% to 20% in Syria.

The History of the Caliphate and its rebirth

In order to better understand the Islamic group, it is worth to take a further look at the history of the Caliphate and how ISIS envisions it.

For more than 1,000 years, the Muslim society (Umma) was living united under one Caliphate, which was subject to the law of God (Sharia), the Qur’an and its holy traditions, known as hadiths. The fall of the Caliphate was followed shortly after the establishment of Kemal Ataturk’s presidency in Turkey. The latter has been accused of abolishing the Ottoman Caliphate in 1924 and for destroying the Islamic state.

After the failed attempts of Islamic scholars to modernise the Islamic states during the 20th century, ISIS is now claiming the revival of the true Islamic Caliphate. The new Caliphate will be governed by its caliph and in accordance with the Islamic Law (Sharia). The role of the caliph will take over the leader of the group – Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim al-Badri al-Samarrai or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, as he is better known. Many jihadist members of other groups have also been attracted by the plans of a new Islamic State and joined ISIS – including members of al-Qaeda.

Finally, the legitimation of IS actions is drawn from the sacred book of Qur’an. The answer lies in the concept of jihad, which means battle or struggle; the internal struggle to follow the will of God; the external battle to spread the Truth of Islam in the rest of the world. For the radical organisations of Islam, this battle has been translated as a holy war against the infidels. The attacks against the western civilisation are not only a protest against its hegemony but also against its principles. Thus, ISIS members envision themselves as warriors of God that will spread the words of Qur’an to the rest of the world.

The use of symbols inspired by the Islamic tradition: The monochrome flag

After this brief analysis for the Caliphate, it is interesting to see what other symbols ISIS uses to open up communication channels with the Islamists. The black and white flag (or the black flag) has been used as a major symbol of ISIS. Other jihad-oriented groups have also used this flag.

A closer look to the black flag reveals two important facts; the reference in the Seal of Mohammed and the Shahada; the deliberate use of the black and white font. Initially, the Arabic message in the black font declares, “There is no God but God”, while the second line of the white circle incorporates the Seal of Mohammed which states that “God’s Messenger [is] Mohammed”. These two statements consist also the Shahada, the basis for the declaration of the Islamic faith. Regarding the choice of the black and white font, according to experts, it refers to the Prophet Mohammed’s war banner that calls the world of Islam to fight against Christians.

Differences and rivalry between the religious sects of Islam

Another parameter that will help the reader to get a clearer view of why jihadist groups are thriving in the Middle East and North/ Sub-Saharan Africa is by understanding the difference between the two main religious sects of Islam.

Between Shiites and Sunnis, the schism resulted from the disagreement over who should have succeeded Prophet Mohammed after his death. According to Shia, only kinsmen of the Prophet could become caliphs, while for Sunnis caliphs could also come from the community of believers.

For Sunnis, who represent the orthodox dogma of the Muslims, they follow the tradition of Mohammed (Sunnah) and the Islamic law (Sharia). In fact, they represent 90% of the Muslim world, the majority of whom live in Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, Shiites worship Ali² and his relatives as the main religious figures after Mohammed. They make up 10% of the Muslims and mainly live in Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Azerbaijan and Yemen.

The rivalry between the two sects of Islam has deeply affected the current crises in the Middle East. The conflict in Syria is a great example of this endless war. Shiites from Hezbollah and Iran have been providing support to the Shia-led government against the Sunnis. In return, Sunni jihadist groups including the Islamic State (IS) have been trying to refute Shi’a forces in Syria and neighbouring Iraq. Another great example was the political standoff between the Shia-led government and the minority of Sunni Arabs in Iraq in December 2013. ISIS reinforces its presence in the area by helping the former Saddam Hussein loyalists.

ISIS-occupied zones in Syria and Iraq

How did ISIS succeed to spread its territory in Syria and Iraq? The answer lies in its self-sufficiency in troops, weapons and energy monopoly. With more than 28,000 foreign fighters have joined its army, the group has also at its disposal small and heavy weapons including captured tanks from the Syrian and the Iraqi armies.

Financially, IS is considered as one of the wealthiest militant groups. Its sources rely on funding from private donors and Islamic charities; on crude oil trade to local exporters; in special taxes to religious minorities.

All in all, the Islamic State is currently occupying the key cities in Iraq and Syria, but still has lost the control in some of its occupied cities; Tikrit, Sinjar and Ramadi in Iraq; Hassaka and much of Kobane in Syria. In December 2015, the group has captured some areas in the Nangarhar province and Jalalabad of Afghanistan, while also established its presence in Yemen.

Attacks outside ISIS territory

Above, it was examined the strength of IS in its territory and were also presented the factors that consolidated its presence in Syria and Iraq. What about IS’s global reach?

Middle East consists of the core of the ISIS activity. In Turkey, multiple attacks were carried out in Ankara and Istanbul, while in Lebanon ISIS claimed the responsibility of the Beirut twin blasts, as retaliation to Hezbollah. Egypt has also seen a strong presence of ISIS on the Sinai Peninsula. In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the Shiite population was the target of many attacks. Following, Jordan has suffered from ISIS threats. In Afghanistan, the attacks against the Pakistani Consulate and the TV Station in Islamabad were the result of the competition between ISIS and Taliban. Bangladesh has been the witness of numerous attacks from ISIS by targeting the Hindu community, foreigners and Muslim sects.

In North Africa, there is an imminent fear that the region will fall in ISIS domination and will be the next generator of a refugee crisis after the recent attack of Tunisian’s town Ben Guerdane that left at least 58 people dead. Additionally, Libya is currently ungoverned and was spotted as an important training ground for ISIS, while Algeria and Morocco have taken counter-terrorism measures to prevent the spread of ISIS militants in their countries.

Although North Africa has been the priority for ISIS, the group gains ground also to the south. Currently, there are three jihadist hotspots: northern Nigeria and Chad; the Horn of Africa; Mali and the Sahel region. For many years, these areas were under the al-Qaeda’s influence and so ISIS had some success in making inroads among jihadist groups in sub-Saharan Africa.

In Europe, the recent execution of 130 people in Paris and the two bomb attacks in the metro station/ airport in Brussels were the punishment for the airstrikes of the two countries against ISIS in Syria. In Copenhagen, a man that claimed allegiance to ISIS killed two people in two separate attacks in February 2015. Many European countries were also reported for ISIS activity in their territory. Bosnia was used as a base for training and for launching attacks in Europe. Spanish and Portuguese nationals were also spotted for having links with the jihadist group.

By spreading IS presence throughout South-East Asia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines have feared the expansion of Islamic extremism in their territory. In Indonesia, the attack of January 2016 in Jakarta killed more than 7 people and further attacks might follow due to the big number of Muslims in the country.

Australia was also witnessing of two attacks by IS sympathisers in the past, while in the US and Canada the supporters or recruits of the jihadist group were responsible for a series of attacks. In Russia, it is located a militant jihadist group, Caucasus Emirate, which is also linked with the al-Baghdadi group. Finally, ISIS has also declared the war against China and India for violating Muslim minority rights.

Summing up

 The current article aimed to cover some important aspects of who is the Islamic State and how did it emerge in the global scene. Some important conclusions are that ISIS has already developed a responsive economic system that includes multiple sources of income; a strong military force trained by experienced military officers; a vision for establishing the Islamic State, the Caliphate, which currently includes areas in Iraq and Syria; a well-developed communication strategy to attract new supporters all over the world.

Out of the most important consequences is that the current conflict has generated a refugee crisis. A massive wave of refugees – mainly from Syria and other regions of the Middle East and North Africa – has been displaced within their countries or found shelter in the neighbouring countries and in Europe. With a global crisis underway, vulnerable groups have been inevitably stigmatised by this conflict; some European countries have refused access to refugees due to fears of further attacks in their territory. The article with the title Syria: A Refugee Crisis discusses in detail the consequences of this conflict.

Footnotes

[1] US-led coalition:

The airstrikes of the Western coalition announced against the Islamic State. Countries that took part in the coalition include USA, UK, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Jordan, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. Russia is not part of the US-led coalition but has carried airstrikes as against ISIS in Syria.

[2] Ali:

He is the Prophet Mohammed’s son-in-law and cousin. Shiites recognise Ali as the only caliph and successor to the Prophet.

Bibliography

Alexander C. and Hodges J. (2015) What’s in a Name? The U.K. Joins Debate on Labeling of Islamic State, Bloomberg, 6th July, Available at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-06/what-s-in-a-name-u-k-joins-debate-on-labeling-of-islamic-state (Accessed 10th April 2016)

Barker A. (2016) How Islamic State’s impact has gone global, ABC News, 16th March, Available at: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-16/islamic-state-isis-global-impact/7089664 (Accessed 10th April 2016)

BBC (2009) Sunni and Shi’a, Religions, 19th August, Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/religion/religions/islam/subdivisions/sunnishia_1.shtml (Accessed 9th April 2016)

BBC (2015) What is ‘Islamic State’? BBC News, Middle East, 2nd December, Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29052144 (Accessed 9th April 2016)

BBC (2016a) Islamic State group: Crisis in seven charts, BBC News, 30th March, Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27838034 (Accessed 10th April 2016)

BBC (2016b) Sunnis and Shia: Islam’s ancient schism, BBC News, 4th January, Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16047709 (Accessed 9th April 2016)

Collard R. (2015) What We Have Learned Since ISIS Declared a Caliphate One Year Ago, Time, 25th June, Available at: http://time.com/3933568/isis-caliphate-one-year/ (Accessed 11th April 2016)

Ehrmann T. (2012) État Islamique- Daesh P1050159,

Gander K. (2015) Isis flag” What do the words mean and what are its origins? The Independent, 6th July, Available at: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-flag-what-do-the-words-mean-and-what-are-its-origins-10369601.html (Accessed 7th April 2016)

Habeck Mary (2006) Knowing the Enemy, Yale University, New Haven & London

Harshaw T. (2015) Islamic State’s Dark Beginnings, Bloomberg View, 29th December, Available at: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-12-29/islamic-state-s-dark-beginnings (Accessed 11th April 2016)

IISS (2015) ISIS gains ground in sub-Saharan Africa, Strategic Comments, 2015 (40), Available at: http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/strategic%20comments/sections/2015-1f4d/isis-in-africa-2d91 (Accessed 10th April 2016)

Laghmari J., Alexander C. and Follain J. (2016) Islamic State Spreads in North Africa in Attacks Ignored by West, Bloomberg, 16th March, Available at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-16/islamic-state-spreads-in-north-africa-in-attacks-ignored-by-west (Accessed 11th April 2016)

Prusher I. (2014) What the ISIS Flag Says About the Militant Group, Time, 9th September, Available at: http://time.com/3311665/isis-flag-iraq-syria/ (Accessed 7th April 2016)

Tolson J. (2005) The Shiite Factor, U.S. News & World Report, 138 (4): 24-28, Available at: https://www.ebscohost.com (Accessed 9th April 2016)

Zelin Y. A. (2014) Abu Bakr al Baghdadi: Islamic State’s driving force, BBC News, 31st July, Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28560449 (Accessed 9th April 2016)

Tags: Islamic State (IS), Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant US-led coalition, Caliphate, Syria, black flag, Shiites, Sunnis, refugee crisis

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UK referendum: Exit Scenarios or Renegotiation?

Within the bosom of the European Union, the shift from the European idealism to the Euroscepticism is already a reality. In the UK, this phenomenon has gradually grown within the last three decades as opposed to deeper integration that could threaten British sovereignty (Daddow, 2006).

But what exactly is the phenomenon of Euroscepticism and how does it relate to the UK’s referendum? In the literature, the definition is very ambiguous. Certainly, it represents the voice of those who oppose to further integration that lacks legitimation, but their views vary over the constitutional design for the EU, from intergovernmental to alternative paths of integration with the first option being closer to the UK’s views.

The negative perspective of Britons for the European Union lies in the British history which links back in the 19th century, the era of nationalism in the UK that drew the line between continental Europe and the island (Daddow, 2006). Also, the press held a leading role for nurturing and amplifying an anti-European culture in the UK.

In the most recent history of the UK politics, Euroscepticism reached its peak with the Prime Minister of the Conservative party, Mr David Cameron asking for a referendum in his 2013 EU speech if reelected in the UK general elections of May 2015. Early this month and after a two-day summit in Brussels, he successfully renegotiated with his counterparts the terms of UK’s membership. Now, the say is on the British people who are called to vote with an in/out referendum on 23rd of June 2016.

Why Britain is asking for a referendum now?

To answer this question, it is essential first to understand where Europe currently stands. Second, to address the challenges that threaten European integrity. An accurate overview is given in Rayman & Bremmer’s article, where Europe is represented as a bad formula of countries with “a strong Germany, weak France and absent Britain’’ that restrain the EU from its growth and unity (Rayman and Bremmer, 2015). In addition, the European Union is coping with a Eurozone crisis, a lack of competitiveness in its domestic market in conjunction with political instabilities and the entrance of massive migrant and refugee numbers.

Same reasons were also presented in Cameron’s speech as a justification for the referendum signifying the irrelevance that the UK feels against the EU. Nevertheless, the main objectives of the British negotiations were to protect the country from further political and economic integration and to strengthen the role of the state in the decision-making process within the EU. This is why Cameron suggested a new formula for the EU that will incorporate a flexible network of countries with different levels of integration and cooperation.

In broad terms, the British prime minister has managed to reach a consensus with the European partners in relation to the UK’s claims with some adjustments: a) safeguard the British economy from the Eurozone crisis and the financial centre of City from excessive regulations, b) exclusion of the UK from further integrations, c) reinforcement of the national parliaments’ power to block unwanted legislation, d) refusal in certain migrant benefits such as childcare and migrant welfare payments.

Of course, the negotiations were held within a climate of mutual concessions and disagreements from both sides. Α typical example was the support of the German Chancellor over the cut benefits for the EU nationals that migrate in the UK for the first four years, but characteristically rejected any chance of renegotiating the “fundamental achievements of European integration” (Euractiv.com with AFP, 2016). On the same wavelength, the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, agreed on the basis of further EU reforms but opposed to the UK’s practice to stop the social benefits for the EU nationals, since many Hungarians work and live in the UK.

At the same time, Cameron’s proposals get mixed reception not only in Europe but in the UK as well. Some voices within the UK criticized the failure of the new agreement to address the immigration problem or the inability to control Brussels overpower to UK politics. Moreover, his party integrity is already under risk with Conservative MPs divided between the “in and out” options, while the British public appears fairly evenly divided according to the latest opinion polls (BBC News, 2016a).

In the aftermath, one can assume that the real motive behind Cameron’s decision to call a referendum was to pacify the Eurosceptic voices within his country. And this could be attained by renegotiating the terms of the UK’s membership and by obtaining specific exceptions favourable for the UK.

The exit scenario: what if Britons vote “no” in June’s 2016 referendum

Let’s assume that Britons choose to exit the European Union in June’s 2016 referendum. In this case, the European law provides the right for a member state to leave the European Union. According to article 50 of the Treaty of the E.U, a country needs to notify the European Council for its decision to withdraw. Then, negotiations will follow regarding the terms of exit and the future status of the member state with the Union (Treaty of Lisbon, 2009). The Treaties shall cease to apply in the country once the agreement has been reached for the withdrawal or failing that, within two years after the notification.

Some interesting insights can be drawn here. First, the UK will have the right to disengage from the EU treaties automatically following the expiry of two years, but this approach will prevent it from securing a post-exit relationship. However, its negotiating power will be amplified, as there will be no interest in satisfying the EU demands. Second, the settlement of a post-exit relationship will be one of the bargaining chips for the EU as this special status could vary from “a free trade arrangement to membership of the European Economic Area or to a new higher form of privileged partnership with the EU” (Nicolaides, 2013).

Yet, with a post-exit agreement or without, the hypothetical withdrawal entails some complexities. The exit procedure will be long and painful with possible disputes from both sides. The UK will be forced to fill in the gaps of the European law or the international agreements (where the EU was the signatory party) with extensive re-legislation. In financial terms, the domestic economy in the UK will meet some difficulties with no more access to a free market and to one of the largest networks of trade agreements in the world, which might also hurt its credibility in the financial market.

Conclusions: Europe needs the UK and vice versa

All these Eurosceptic voices across Europe made it clear to Brussels that reforms need to be made. The rise of the Eurosceptic view is a vital part for the EU democratisation and its examination could help policymakers to extract valuable answers to the questions regarding the sovereignty problems of the EU.

Assuming the UK represents a sceptical country that seeks a different status of membership within the EU, Europe should respect this choice. A European model that incorporates countries with different levels of integration could pave the way to further political integration. The history of the European Union teaches us that economic cooperation and integration evolved by allowing countries to join the European Community or to seek a special economic partnership with the EU, including Norway or Iceland (both part of the European Economic Area -EEA) or Switzerland (a member of the European Free Trade Area -EFTA).

What is clearly understood is that Europe needs the UK and the UK needs Europe. A UK exit equals to a weaker European Union, while for the UK, a future outside the EU will mean no access in the EU decision-making let alone the economic consequences.

Photo: Dave Kellam, Flagging Support (2007). Source: (flickr.com) | (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Bibliography

Bahadir A., Micco P. and Fayos F.G. (2015) The European Economic Area (EEA), Switzerland and the North, European Parliament, Available at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyourservice/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_6.5.3.html (Accessed 22nd February 2016)

BBC News (20/02/2016a) EU referendum: Cameron sets June date for UK vote, Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35621079 (Accessed 22nd February 2016)

BBC News (20/02/2016b) The UK’s EU referendum: All you need to know, Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887 (Accessed 22nd February 2016)

Daddow J. O. (2006) Euroscepticism and the Culture of the Discipline of History, Review of International Studies, 32 (2): 309-328, Cambridge University Press, Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40072140 (Accessed 23th March 2015)

Dave Kellam (2007) Flagging Support, Flickr.com (CC BY-SA 2.0), Available at: https://www.flickr.com/photos/davekellam/414918350 (Accessed 25 January 2016)

Euractiv.com with AFP (2016) Cameron Brexit proposals get mixed reception in Berlin and Budapest, Euractiv.com, 7th January 2016, Available at: http://www.euractiv.com/sections/uk-europe/cameron-brexit-proposals-get-mixed-reception-berlin-and-budapest-320783 (Accessed 27th January 2016)

Mark Briggs (2015) As it happened: The UK election, Euractiv.com, 7th May, Available at: http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/as-it-happened-the-uk-election/ (Accessed 22 February 2016)

Nicolaides P. (2013) Is Withdrawal from the European Union a Manageable Option? A Review of Economic and Legal Complexities, Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings, College of Europe, Available at: https://www.coleurope.eu/sites/default/files/research-paper/beep28_0.pdf (Accessed 21st February 2016)

Official Journal of the European Union (2008) Consolidated Version of the Treaty on European Union and The Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (2008/C 115/01, European Union, Available at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=OJ:C:2008:115:FULL&from=EN (Accessed 21st February 2016)

Rayman N. and Bremmer I. (2015) Europe’s Rough Ride, Time, 185 (4): 8-9, Available at: https://www.ebscohost.com (Accessed 23rd March 2015)

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Wilde P. and Trenz H.J. (2012) Denouncing European integration: Euroscepticism as polity contestation, European Journal of Social Theory, 15 (4): 537-554, Available at: http://est.sagepub.com (Accessed 23rd March 2015)

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Serbia: On its journey towards EU membership

The European Union and Serbia began the membership negotiations in December 2015 that will allow Serbia to join the EU in 2020 by opening the first two chapters: Chapter 32 for the financial control and Chapter 35 “Other Issues, Item 1” regarding the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo.

Out of the most important highlights, it was evident that the full accession of the country in the EU will be a long journey as many reforms are required from the Serbian side. From the EU perspective, a crucial step appears to be the recognition of Kosovo from Serbia for the continuation of the negotiations.

The Prime Minister of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, stated that Serbia’s goal is to fulfil its membership criteria by 2019, while also maintaining the traditionally good relations with Russia.

Towards this direction, the European Commissioner for Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, Mr Johannes Hahn, congratulated Serbia’s accomplishments. However, he stressed out that Serbia should focus its efforts on the development of its strategy to reassure an alignment with the EU legislation and that “there is no speed or any other limit, only a certain road which a candidate must navigate through”(Delegation of the European Union to the Republic of Serbia, December 2015).

Background

For the first time, the case of Serbia as a potential candidate member was discussed in 2003 during the Thessaloniki European Council summit. In 2012, the country was granted the status of candidacy and one year later, the European Council started the negotiations with Serbia and agreed on the negotiating framework.

Chapter 35 and the normalisation of the Kosovo-Serbia relations

The normalisation of the relations between Kosovo and Serbia is a top priority set by the EU Enlargement Strategy for good neighbourly relations and regional cooperation.

As specified in paragraph 9 of the EU’s Accession Document for Serbia, the progress in the relations of the latter with Kosovo will be an essential factor for advancing both countries future as full-fledged members of the EU (Conference on Accession to the European Union- Serbia, January 2014). Thus, Serbia is expected to implement all the agreements in the dialogue with Kosovo by resolving any outstanding issues with legal and technical matters as well as by respecting the principles of regional cooperation.

Following the release of the Commission’s staff work document for Serbia’s 2015 Report, it is acknowledged that the mutual engagement of Kosovo and Serbia in the implementation of their agreements had a positive impact on the everyday life of their citizens.

From the EU’s perspective

In the context of the Stabilisation and Association Process of the EU’s Enlargement Policy, many countries of the Western Balkans have been granted the status of EU membership. This region, including Serbia, has been a witness of many recent conflicts and thus an EU membership status has been considered the key for stabilisation and the maintenance of good neighbourly relations.

What’s more, the current refugee crisis with hundreds of thousands of third-country nationals transiting Western Balkans and Turkey urges the need for regional cooperation. Only in Serbia, it is estimated that more than 200,000 refugees entered its territory.

The role of Serbia itself is considered as of great strategic importance for the regional cooperation and for the stability in Western Balkans. With the current recession in Greece and the ongoing migrant crisis, Eric Maurice in his article, published in Euobserver, reiterates that by “anchoring Serbia to the EU has become a geopolitical issue”. (Kosovo agreement clears Serbia’s EU path, EU Observer 2015).

The accession negotiations will be a long journey

Serbia’s accession in the EU will be a long process that “could drag on for years… due to economic crisis and enlargement fatigue in member states” (Eric Maurice; EU Observer, August 2015). Currently, the economic challenges facing the Western Balkan countries will require radical economic reforms in the region: high rate of unemployment, lack of industrialisation, corruption and lack of investment are some examples.

For Serbia, remarkable progress has been made in the financial sector by dropping its unemployment rate and reducing the budget deficit. However, some sectors remain problematic with the publicly owned companies needing further restructure and the private sector further development.

Additionally, the EU’s enlargement policy promotes steady progress in the accession negotiations of each candidate country. As outlined in the Commission’s Communication paper for the EU Enlargement Strategy, “enlargement is a strict but fair process builds on established criteria and lessons learned from the past” and that “each country is assessed on the basis of its own merit”. (EU Enlargement Strategy November 2015).

Photo: Balkan Photos, EU Serbia (2018). Source: (flickr.com) | (CC0 1.0) 

Bibliography

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